Miami’s Running Game Was Supposed to Be the Safety Net. Now It Has to Become One.

Miami’s season has already changed several times. The RedHawks were embarrassed at Pitt, rebuilt some confidence against Holy Cross, proved they could compete with Cincinnati, survived UConn and then gave away their MAC opener against Bowling Green. Somewhere in that stretch, Miami also lost its top two quarterbacks for the season.

Now the RedHawks are 2-3, Caleb Heavner is making his second start and the most surprising team in the conference is waiting for them on Homecoming weekend. UMass is 4-1, Miami is 0-1 in the MAC and the RedHawks are only narrow road favorites in a game that would have looked like one of the easiest on the schedule two months ago.

This is not a routine opportunity to get right. It is a test of whether Miami can build an offense around what was supposed to be its safest advantage.

UMass Is Not the Easy Part of the Schedule

UMass went 0-12 last season and entered 2026 carrying a 16-game losing streak. It responded by upsetting Rutgers, winning its first four games and reaching 4-0 for the first time since 2007.

Eastern Michigan finally ended the run with a 38-14 win last weekend, but one ugly loss does not erase the transformation. The Minutemen have already beaten an opponent from the Big Ten, won their first four games by a combined 94 points and created enough excitement to turn Saturday into a meaningful Homecoming game in Amherst.

Quarterback Pop Watson has thrown for 820 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 167 yards and four scores on the ground. UMass has also built its start around protecting the football and taking it away. The Minutemen have forced 11 turnovers, including six interceptions, and carry one of the best turnover margins in the country.

Miami has won five of the six meetings between the programs, but that history does not describe the team waiting Saturday. UMass has become relevant much faster than anyone expected.

The Safety Net Miami Never Found

I spent the offseason assuming Miami’s experienced offensive line and upgraded backfield would make the running game the safest part of this offense. That has not happened.

Miami is averaging approximately 100 rushing yards per game, and Rodney Nelson leads the team with only 154 yards through five games. The RedHawks have not produced a 100-yard individual rushing performance, found a clear featured back or established a running identity that opponents have to respect.

That is not remotely what I expected from a line featuring four returning starters, Northern Illinois transfer Evan Malcore and 105 combined career starts.

The pass protection was one of the offense’s more dependable qualities through the first four games, particularly while David McComb was producing explosive plays downfield. Miami’s sack rate sat at 5.1 percent through the UConn game, but Bowling Green complicated that assessment. The Falcons recorded six sacks in Heavner’s first start and pushed Miami’s season sack rate to 8.1 percent.

Some of that may belong to the protection, some to a quarterback making his first Division I start and some to an offense adjusting on short notice. Without charting every pressure, it would be unfair to place all six sacks on the offensive line. The broader disappointment is easier to identify: Miami assembled an experienced line and a deep collection of running backs, yet the RedHawks still cannot consistently run the ball when the offense needs stability.

They need it now more than ever.

Do Not Ask Heavner to Replace McComb by Himself

Heavner played well enough to win against Bowling Green. He completed 17 of 24 passes for 198 yards and a touchdown, protected the football and gave Miami the lead with 1:47 remaining.

That was a respectable first start, but it should not become an excuse to place the entire offense on him. McComb gave Miami an explosive passing identity before his injury, leading the country at 17.3 yards per completion and repeatedly demonstrating that he could attack defenses vertically. Asking Heavner to reproduce that immediately would be unfair, especially against a UMass defense that leads the MAC with six interceptions.

Miami can make his job much easier by avoiding obvious passing situations, creating useful gains on early downs and using Heavner’s mobility as a complement rather than an emergency plan.

The goal should not be to hide Heavner. He has too much experience and played too well last week for that. The goal should be to support him.

Miami’s Defense Has Its Own Problem to Solve

The running game is the clearest offensive question, but Miami’s defense cannot escape scrutiny after allowing Bowling Green to drive 75 yards for the winning touchdown.

Watson presents a different challenge. He can extend plays, punish undisciplined rush lanes and turn a failed pass play into a first down with his legs. Miami cannot spend another afternoon losing track of assignments as an opposing offense gains confidence.

Pressure may also be difficult to generate. UMass has allowed only 0.6 sacks per game, the second-best rate in the MAC and one of the best marks nationally. That places more responsibility on Miami’s coverage and tackling, two areas that have been far too inconsistent.

This does not require Miami’s defense to become dominant in one week. It requires the unit to stop allowing one mistake to become an entire scoring drive.

The Dream Changed. The Season Did Not End.

The dream of finishing 10-2 and reaching a major bowl game is gone. Even the broader hope of turning Miami’s massive offseason investment into a nationally significant season has been damaged almost beyond repair.

That is painful because this roster was built for something larger than fighting back to bowl eligibility. The talent, money and expectations all pointed higher. Bowl eligibility is still available, however, and the MAC race is still mathematically alive.

This is also where Martin’s history deserves to be acknowledged without relitigating every criticism from the previous two losses. Miami has lost consecutive conference games only three times since 2016 and is 17-4 following a conference loss during that span. His teams have repeatedly responded when a MAC season appeared ready to move in the wrong direction. Saturday will test whether that established strength still holds under the program’s new expectations.

I am not going to spend the next seven games treating every Saturday as meaningless if the biggest goals disappear. I built a website called Hype & Honor. I will find something worth watching.

Individual development matters now. Heavner has a chance to prove he can lead a Division I offense. The running backs have an opportunity to establish roles, young defenders can earn larger ones and Miami can learn which pieces belong in the program’s next serious attempt at national relevance.

Two of the most exciting players Miami introduced this season are freshmen. Scoop Smith is a true freshman who already ranks among the most dangerous kick returners in the country. McComb is a redshirt freshman who gave Miami a glimpse of what its offense could become before his injury.

That does not replace the season Miami hoped to have, but it gives the remaining games value beyond the final record. First, Miami has to stop the current season from slipping away.

UMass is no longer a guaranteed recovery game. It is a 4-1 opponent with a dangerous quarterback, an opportunistic defense and a Homecoming crowd that finally has a reason to believe. Miami still has the more expensive roster and enough talent to win, but its most experienced position group must finally provide the identity that has been missing.

The dream got smaller. The game did not.